Category Archives: Uncategorized

Chinese Real Estate, or Cities and Stability

Caricatures of the Chinese real estate market fall into two camps: bears view it as a remarkable bubble that is going to burst, while bulls believe that it is part of an economic engine that has every reason to keep … Continue reading

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Dreaded Perspectives

Jeffrey Isaac was one of my favorite instructors during my undergraduate days at Indiana University long ago. He does an excellent job editing the APSA journal Perspectives on Politics. Along with interesting articles, Perspectives contains book reviews. Lots of them. Every quarter my RSS … Continue reading

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Returning to China’s Urbanization

Thanks to Bill Bishop and others, my post on China’s urbanization and democracy, Urbanization Won’t Drive Chinese Democracy, has had something of a second life. I wanted to take the opportunity then to connect that piece and my other arguments to the recent … Continue reading

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Meanings of Means

Social scientists tend to propose and test hypotheses of the following type: Hypothesis: As [our explanatory variable] increases, [our outcome variable] also increases, all else equal. The way that hypotheses of this sort are tested is by compiling a large … Continue reading

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Bias and Manipulation

I am on the record as having doubts about the validity of some official Chinese economic statistics. Provincial level GDP growth rates jump at moments of political turnover in excess of their electricity consumption and after controlling for other economic … Continue reading

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Urbanization Won’t Drive Chinese Democracy

Alex Lo in the South China Morning Post has a short column with the following explosive title: Urbanisation will drive democracy The piece begins: The greatest driver for democracy in China will not come from its dissidents, overseas subversives or … Continue reading

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Today’s China is Communist and Modern, Not High Modernist

The Chinese government released its long-awaited urbanization plan (国家新型城镇化规划) on 16 March. Ian Johnson, who has written extensively about China’s urbanization for the New York Times, begins his piece on the announcement of the plan in grand terms: China has announced a … Continue reading

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